Only 6% of COVID-19 cases officially detected says study
As the official estimated numbers of worldwide COVID-19 cases reaches almost two million, some scientists say that the actual number of infections is likely to be significantly higher than these figures.
According to a new study from University of Göttingen researchers Christian Bommer and Sebastian Vollmersay, cases of coronavirus could have actually reached tens of millions.
To test the quality of official case records, Professor Vollmer and Dr. Bommer analysed data from a recent study published The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal.
Their data show that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of coronavirus infections.
Insufficient and delayed testing could explain why European countries such as Italy and Spain are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported cases) than, for example, Germany.
Germany is understood to have detected an estimated 15.6% cases compared with 3.5% in Italy and 1.7% of cases in Spain.
Detection rates are understood to be even lower in the USA, standing at approximately 1.6% and for the UK 1.2% confirmed cases. These two countries have received widespread criticism from public health professionals for their slow response to the pandemic.
These figures are in extreme contrast to South Korea, who have appeared to have detected almost half of its COVID-19 infections.
The researchers estimated that on 31 March 2020 Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same calculation method this suggested that on the same date the USA had more than ten million infections, Spain - over 5 million, Italy approximately three million and the UK around two million infections.
On that same (31 March 2020) day John Hopkins University reported 900,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the USA - suggesting that a large number of cases were unidentified.
“Such extreme differences in the amount and quality of testing carried out in different countries mean that official case records are largely uninformative and do not provide helpful information,” said Professor Vollmer.
Both researchers stressed the need for significant improvements in the ways that countries detect and contain new infections.
"The fatality rate is likely to be strongly influenced by the availability of health care facilities," the experts add.
The total number of COVID-19 infections across the world could have reached tens of millions - if the researchers calculations are correct. The pair predict that with the continued spread of COVID-19 and the proportion of people requiring hospitalisation, "even the most advanced health care systems are likely to be overwhelmed”.
Reference: Original publication: Bommer C & Vollmer S, ‘Average detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections is estimated around six percent’, (2020): www.uni-goettingen.de/en/606540.html
Background publication: Verity et al. "Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2020): DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7
