Social distancing measures could last until 2022, according to a study

However strong and prepared the health system of any country is, it won’t be enough to cover the saturation crisis caused by the coronavirus health emergency. From the countries that have reacted best to the pandemic, we have learned that social distancing measures are the most effective means of containing the spread; The counterpart is that each country’s economy will suffer as a result of a fall in consumption.

An article published by the magazine Science, unfortunately, estimates that social distancing measures (not of confinement) could be prolonged until 2022 if we want to effectively stop the spread of SARS-Cov-2 and the health saturation. As cited in the paper: "The experience of China, Italy, and the United States shows that COVID-19 can overwhelm even the health-care capabilities of nations with sufficient resources". More investment in health does not necessarily mean better management, as is the case, for example, with the United States.

Well, once the social separation and containment measures have been implemented, the countries that started quarantine earlier are gradually lifting the measures, after achieving adequate control of the virus, and many expect the same in other countries such as Spain in the near future; but we may be being overly optimistic: "To mitigate the possibility of a resurgence of infection, prolonged or intermittent periods of social estrangement may be required. After the initial pandemic wave, SARS-Cov-2 could follow its closest genetic relative, SARS-Cov-1, and be eradicated by intensive public health measures after causing a brief but intense epidemic. But increasingly, public health authorities consider this scenario unlikely". It should be noted that countries like Singapore have been facing a second wave of contagion since the end of March due to the early lifting of containment measures, as BBC reports.

Although the coronavirus is more like a cousin to SARS-Cov-1 than the influenza viruses, the authors believe that the tendency is for it to begin circulating seasonally, such as the flu: "The transmission of SARS-Cov-2 could resemble that of pandemic influenza by circulating seasonally after causing an initial wave of infections. Distinguishing between these scenarios is key to formulating an effective and sustained public health response to SARS-Cov-2".

The researchers have carried out a simulation in which they analyse the seasonality of other coronaviruses and other types of viruses, to try to predict a transmission model compatible with SARS-Cov-2: "Recurring outbreaks of SARS-Cov-2 will probably occur during winter after the most severe initial pandemic wave. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social estrangement may be necessary until 2022". Additionally, “Even in the case of an apparent elimination of the virus, the surveillance of SARS-Cov-2 should be maintained, since a resurgence of the infection could be possible until 2024", they conclude.

In addition, other interventions, such as expanded health-care capacity and effective therapeutic care, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and accelerate the acquisition of collective immunity.

The dynamics of pandemic and post-pandemic transmission of SARS-Cov-2 will depend, according to these experts, on factors that include the degree of seasonal variation of transmission, the duration of immunity and the degree of cross-immunity between SARS-Cov-2 and other coronaviruses, and the intensity and timing of the control measures.

References:

'Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period'
Stephen M. Kissler, Science, 14 Apr 2020, DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793