Wuhan Coronavirus vs. other fatal outbreaks

The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is already a global health emergency, according to the UN. The new type of coronavirus was first detected in December 2019 in the Chinese town of Wuhan; since then, has spread around the globe. More than 43,000 people are already affected, and more than 1,000 have died.

The coronavirus is spreading rapidly and, as a precaution, all countries already have an emergency protocol in place. The perception of risk in the face of a threat often does not correspond to the real risk of the threat itself. It happens every time we travel by car (an average person has a one in 84 chance of dying in a traffic accident throughout his life) or when we avoid swimming in the sea by imagining a shark attack'.

There is still no vaccine or antiviral medicines available for the Wuhan Coronavirus, and scientists are working around the clock to learn more about its epidemiology. Despite the unfortunate deaths, and the suffering of people with complications from this coronavirus, are a large amount of people infected? It depends on what we compare it to.

Wuhan Coronavirus vs. the flu

The mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus is around two to three percent. That is, two or three patients out of 100 would die of Wuhan coronavirus.

Now, let’s take the data of the Spanish flu, an epidemic that left 500 million affected in the winter of 1918 to 1919, of which about 45 million people died. Their mortality rate is therefore around ten percent.

Even more surprising, is the data in the case of the seasonal flu; with which we are all familiar. The common influenza virus leaves between 290,000 and 650,000 deaths every year. Overall, the mortality rate is 0.6%; however, it may range from 30 to 60%, depending on the country and the patient’s general state of health. In any case, an incredibly higher rate.

What are the symptoms of Wuhan’s coronavirus? In essence, it looks a lot like the flu or pneumonia. It causes coughing, sneezing, shortness of breath and, in some cases, kidney failure. Pneumonia is what is killing the infected, according to family medicine specialist Carmen Jódar Casanova.

Additionally, people at risk for serious complications or death are, as in the case of other respiratory conditions, the elderly, very young children, people with weakened immune system or with respiratory diseases, or pregnant women.

Wuhan Coronavirus vs. SARS

On 29 January 2020, the authorities confirmed that the number of cases of Wuhan coronavirus in mainland China had exceeded the number of people who were infected with SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) during the 2002-2003 epidemic.

In February, the number of deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus eventually surpassed that of the SARS, reaching more than 800.

Source: SCMP GRAPHICS

When the global SARS outbreak was contained, it had spread to more than 8,000 people worldwide; but it killed almost 800. This is equivalent to a mortality rate of ten percent compared to that of the coronavirus of only two percent. This comparison also means that the coronavirus spreads much faster than SARS. The coronavirus has an incubation period of two to 14 days.

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Coronavirus vs. MERS

The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) was first detected in 2012 in Saudi Arabia. As with the new coronavirus, scientists are not sure what its origin is, but an animal reservoir is suspected. According to the United States National Library, the fatality rate for MERS is 30% (similar to seasonal influenza, and ten times higher than for the Wuhan coronavirus). MERS is caused by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).

Remember that the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a type of coronavirus (common name designating viruses with a characteristic ‘corona’ of proteins on their surface).

Risk perception: Italy

A poll carried out on the general population of Italy in February 2020 asked respondents whether they were afraid of being affected by the Wuhan coronavirus, or that some of their relatives would suffer. 64% of those interviewed answered yes, despite the fact that only three are currently infected in the country.